Poll surge for Liberal Democrats as Labour and Conservative support dips

Written by Julian Glover and published in The Guardian on Fri 2nd Apr 2010

Latest Guardian/ICM poll puts Labour on 29%, the Conservatives on 38% and the Lib Dems on 23%

Liberal Democrat support has climbed to its highest level in an ICM poll since Nick Clegg became leader

Labour support has dropped below 30% for the first time in three months, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. The results confirm that the Conservatives retain a clear lead as Gordon Brown prepares to call the election, expected to be announced next week.

Although the Conservatives are at 38%, down two points on the last Guardian/ICM poll and down one on a more recent ICM survey, the party will draw comfort from Labour's failure to make progress. Labour has slipped two points since the most recent ICM poll to 29%.

Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat support has climbed to its highest level in an ICM poll since Nick Clegg became leader. The party is up four points on the most recent ICM poll to 23%, and up three on the last Guardian/ICM survey. The party['s position was helped by a sharp increase in the certainty of the Lib Dem supporters surveyed to vote, which has influenced the weighting given to the party in ICM's calculations.

This new confidence among Lib Dem voters may be a result of Vince Cable's strong showing in this week's televised debates. But the trend of has yet to be confirmed in other polls. If it is, concern will increase inside the two largest parties about a potential Lib Dem surge which could increase the prospect of a hung parliament.

The latest poll also follows other recent surveys in showing a slight widening of the Conservative lead, to nine points.

Meanwhile support for other parties is down slightly to 10%.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 30-31 March 2010. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.